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Rejime Spesial Greater Sunrise, Efeitu Multiplikativu, no Oportunidade Ekonomia TLNG

Marcos Fernandes - Ekonomia · Opiniaun
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(Husi: Teodoro M. Mota)

20 Novembru 2023, Governu Timor-Leste no kompanha minarai Woodside konkorda ona hahu concept study. Concept studynudar faze inisiu iha etapa projeitu Greater Sunrise (GS) hodi identifika posibilidade, no kondisoens hotu-hotu hodi dezenvolve kampu GS. Tuir prinsipiu tratadu Greater Sunrise Special Regime (GSSR) anexu B katak dezenvolvimentu, exploitasaun no jestaun minarai ho gas iha kampu GS tenke benefisia parte rua Timor-Leste no Australia.

Tuir tratadu GSSR anexu B kontempla prinsipiu, artigu, no klausula sira nebe regulariza konaba titulu no partilha reseita, taxa,  kontratu fahe produsaun iha kampu GS, entidade reguladora, autoridade dezignadu, governance board, komisaun resolusaun disputa, planu dezenvolvimentu kampu GS, pipeline, petroleum mining code, audit no direitu informasaun, lei nebe aplikabel, kontiudu lokal, kordenasaun no koperasaun, juridisaun, customs no migrasaun, quarantina, vessels ou ro, juridisaun kriminal, desmantelamentu kampu GS, instalasaun rejime spesial, durasaun no siklu vida husi regime GS, nune mos kontempla informasaun konaba GSSR anexu C difini area rejime spesial iha kampu GS.

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SCROLL FILA BA NOTISIA


Strutura reguladora no administrasaun ba GSSR kompostu husi autoridade dezignadu no governance board. Autoridade dezignada nia papel garantia no asegura funsionamentu diaria konaba lalaok regulamentu no jestaun husi atividade petrolifera iha area GSSR, no autoridade dezignada reprezenta nasaun Timor-Leste no Australia depois hato’o relatoriu ba governance board. Tuir tradu GSSR anexa B,Governance boardkompostu husi reprezentante nasaun rua; husi Timor-Leste ema nain rua (2) no Australia ema nain ida (1).

Governance board nudar orgaun alto tuir GSSR nebe nia funsaun mak: superviziona ho planu stratejiku sira eziste iha GSSR, halo audit no verifikasaun ba regulamentu, administrasaun no rendimentu atividade petroliferu iha tasi laran (offshore), halo desijaun ba issue stratejia nebe kontempla ona iha GSSR, aprova amandamentu konaba interim petroleum mining code (IPMC), aprovasaun ba petroleum mining code (PMC),halo mos supervizaun ba autoridade dezignada, nomos iha direitu aprova no veta planu dezenvolvimentu kampu GS (Anexu B, GSSR).

Dezenvolvimentu kampu GS hahu bainhira hetan ona aprovasaun maioria ba planu dezenvolvimentu kampu GS nebe aprezenta husi kompanha operador ho joint venture sira, no aprezenta ona planu ba autoridade dezignadu no governance board hodi halo estudu no verifikasaun detailu tuir padraun internasional industria minarai. Tuir tratadu anexu B konaba GSSR prosesu aprovasaun ka veta planu dezenvolvimentu kampu GSdurante  loron 180, bainhira iha ona koreksaun, veta no aprovasaun ruma, hafoin planu dezenvolvimentu kampu GS tama emvigor no hahu implementa. No karik, iha veta ka koreksaun ruma, entaun presija ajusta no hadia husi kompanha operador ho joint venture, hafoin submete no re-avalia.

Operador ba kampu Greater Sunrise (GS) mak Woodside (33.44%), Osaka Gas (10%) ho Timor Gap (56.56%). Distansia husi kampu GS mai Timor-Leste 150 kilometru (KM) no ba Australia 450 KM. Molok hahu dezenvolve kampu GS, presija diskute klean konaba planu dezenvolvimentu kampu GS (field development plan), no hatur klaru regulamentu no prosedimentu legais nebee opera, regula no kontempla ona iha akordu GSSR anexu B, PMC (Petroleum Mining Code), IPMC (Interim Petroleum Mining Code), Ancillary regulation, Production Sharing Contract (PSC) hodiasegura win-win solution ba empreza no governu. Tuir regime espesial GS karik pipeline mai TL receitas sei fahe 70% mai TL no 30% ba Australia. Enkuantu pipeline ba Australia receitas sei fahe 80% mai TL no 20% ba Australia. Nune nasaun rua iha direitu hodi foti desijaun konaba futuru dezenvolvimentu kampu GS, liu husi governance board nebe nomeadu husi nasaun rua (Anexu B: GSSR).

Efeitu Multiplikativu, no Oportunidade Ekonomia Timor-Leste Liquified Natural Gas (TLNG):

  1. Tuir Maher (2018), ezistensia TLNG sei fo vantajem ekonomia rai laran. Vantajem premeiru mosu kedan bainhira komesa konstrusaun ba projeitu LNG, hahu mobilidade ekipamentus, apoiu lojistiku, konstrusaun pipeline nebe dada husi tasi laran to’o mai rai maran, sei estimula suplai sasan no services hanesan enjinharia, manutensaun, fabrikasaun ki’ik, hadia sasan, soldadura espesializadu, cleaning services, transportasaun, jardineiru, seguransa, suplai kimika, negosiu tanki LNG, tug boats, ujus elektrisidade, aluga eskritoriu no akomondasaun, hoteis no entretenimentu, suplai hahan, suplai aifuan, suplai modo, no sst. Aktividade hirak nee sei konsumu fundus $ billiaun dollar. Montante hirak mak ekonomia timor nia sei hetan tulun hadia povu nia moris. Osan ba emprejariu lokal no osan ba empregador timor oan rasik hodi hadia sira nia rendimentu. Vantajem seluk hetan husi jasa-jasa durante konstrusaun projeitu no sosa sasan husi rekursu lokal (Niccolini, F., Chisari, L. A., & Maggioni, B., 2019).
  1. Pipeline gas mai TL no hari planta LNG iha Beaço sei kria kampu serbisu ba timor oan barak bele to’o mil ba pozisaun tekniku ho non-tekniku. Esperiensia hatudu konstrusaun planta LNG iha nasaun seluk bele absorve kampu serbisu ba ema hamutuk 12000 tantu ema husi area minarai no non-minarai. Tuir informasaun husi Archambaud (1995), pipeline gas mai TL sei kria kampu servisu bele kobre to’o 10.000 pessoas.

III. Iha estudu kazu; kampu Ichthys nebe lokalija iha Tasi Timor ho 200 KM western Australia ho potensia rezervatoriu gas natural 12 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) ho 500 miliaun baril mina kondensadu (MMbbls) kompanya INPEX nudar operador ho joint venture Tokyo Gas, Osaka Gas, Chubu Electric ho Toho Gas konstrui fundu investimentu final (final investment decision/FID) ba projeitu LNG ho total US $45 biliaun no hahu kontrusaun iha 2012 no kria kampu trabalho to’o 8500 pessoas(https://www.gem.wiki/Ichthys_FLNG_Terminal).

  1. Tuir Niccolini et al, (2019), Hari planta LNG iha TL sei fo vantajem taxa ba governu: vantajem fijiku nebee hetan husi dezenvolvimentu projeitu LNG mak taxa. Vantajem taxa mak rendimentu nebee governu TL hetan husi empregador no emprejariu tantu nasional no internasional. Taxa nebee emprejariu no empregador sei selu ba governu, inklui aktividades ekonomia nebee iha posibilidade sei mosu durante periodu konstrusaun no operasaun projeitu. Konsekuensia taxa husi aktividade projeitu upstream no downstream depende kondisaun taxa nebe governu TL prepara. Serake sei kria taxa iha rai laran?, ou sei halo regulamentu foun konaba taxa ba fasilidade?, no ect.
  1. Hari planta LNG iha TL sei garantia sustentabilidade industria petroliferu to’o futuru jerasaun. Fasilidade planta LNG nebe sei harii iha TL laos deit produs ka likifika gas husi kampu greater sunrise (GS) ho potensia rezervatoriu gas 10,4 to’o 19,2 tcf no mina kondensadu 474-914 milliaun barel (MMbbls) (Ainsworth et al, 2000). Maibe mos, sei produs kampu gas seluk lokaliza iha tasi Timor identifikadu ho rezervatoriu gas mak kampu gas Chuditch ho rezerva 0.7 tcf, kampu gas Kelp Deep ho estimasaun rezerva 8.4 – 13.6 tcf, no potensia gas em jeral iha teritoriu TL (www. anpm.tl).
  1. Hari TLNG sei sustentabiliza fundu petroleum (FP) bainhira kampu minarai Bayu Undan (BU) nia produsaun remata. Tuir informasaun husi Santos nudar kompanya operador iha kampu BU katak estimasaun BU nia life time to’o deit 2023 sei la ekonomis, intermu kustu operasaun boot liu kustu rekoperasaun. Kampu BU hahu produs liquidu iha 2004 no gas hahu produs 2006 (S.R. Neubecker, C.T. Erbrich, 2004). Kampu BU kontribui ona receitas ba nasaun purvolta $ 30 billiaun dollar. Husi receitas $ 30 biliaun, $ 12 biliaun mak uja ona ba despeza publiku depois de independensia 2002 to’o agora no ba futuru. Tuir informasaun husi Banco Central Timor-Leste (BCTL), FP agora dadaun rai iha banku federal US purvolta $ 18.075 billiaun dollar. Receitas husi kampu BU 90% mak finansia OJE kada anum ba seitor dezenvolvimentu hotu-hotu iha TL. Iha parte seluk, kompanya operador Woodside ho joint venture Osaka deklara ona sira sei la investa iha parte downstream.
Lee Mós :
Governu Sosa Saham, Timor Telecom Porsentu 77 Timor-Leste Nian

VII. Benefisiu adisional husi hari planta LNG mak uja fasilidades refere laos deit likifika ou produs gas husi rai laran, maibe mos bele importa gas husi nasaun seluk hodi halo likifikasaun molok faan ba merkadu.

VIII. Produsaun mina no gas natural bele uja hanesan kobustivel no bele konverte no deriva produtu ou sasan kimika hanesan pupuk, sepatu, roupa, lem, triplex, tinta, plastiku, roda, bola, CD, tasu, oklu, payung, pasta, mangeira, fiu eletrisidade, fatin cas ahi ou terminal ahi, metro, pinsel, sasan halimar ba labarik kiik, supeita, kadeira, butyl ou fatin mina morin, camera dijital, no ect. Sasan ou equipamentus sira nee hotu produs husi mina no gas natural. Signifika sei hamoris industria no ekonomia husi area nee.

  1. Hari TLNG sei fo benefisiu profit husi rezultadu faan mina no gas kampu GS. Komersialidade kampu GS depende ba rezerva mina no gas, presu no demanda gas iha merkadu. Tuir kalkulasaun model ekonomia, investimentu kustu ou capital expenditure ba projeitu pipeline no TLNG ba atividade explorasaun, perfurasaun, produsaun, instalasaun pipeline, konstrusaun planta LNG no fatin prosesamentu produtu no to’o merkadoria ho total fundu purvolta $ 10.5-12 billiaun dollar. Kompara ho projeitu Ichthys LNG iha Darwin konsumu fundu US $ 45 billiaun dollar(https://www.gem.wiki/Ichthys_FLNG_Terminal).
  1. Hari TLNG sei fo benefisiu intermu fahe produsaun iha kampu greater sunrise (GS). Profit indikator nebee bain-bain uja iha industria minarai mak; net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), benefit cost ratio (B/C), no payback of time (POT). Kompanya sempre investa wainhira valor IRR boot liu minimum actractive of return (MARR) (Castle, G. R., 1979). Analizasaun project economics nudar sasukat ba companya operador, joint venture no host country foti desijaun ba dezenvolvimentu projeitu kampu GS. Ho realijasaun fronteira maritima (FM) hamosu regime espesial foun iha kampu GS, maibe fo vantajem boot ba TL. Tuir akordu FM preve katak pipeline gas mai TL sei fahe rendimentu 70% mai TL no 30% ba Australia. Redimentu husi royalty 10% (5% ba governu no 5% ba kontraktores). Husi 5% ba governu sei fahe tutan ba governu TL no Australia ho percentajem 70%:30%. Enkuantu 5% seluk ba kontraktores. Rendimentu seluk TL sei hetan husi investimentu kustu capital. Kustu kapital mak tuir kontratu hare liu ba kustu peskijas hotu nebee hahu husi explorasaun geolojia, seismiku, ou buka minarai no gas husi inisiu to’o hetan petroleum ou deskobre mina no gas. Kustu kapital tuir maneira kontratu nebee iha kuandu wainhira kompanya investa osan ona hodi buka mina no gas, estadu tenke selu 100% hafoin aumenta tan 127% hanesan kreditu investimentu (investment credit ou IC). Nee maneira kontratu uja hodi atrai ekonomikamente ba kontraktores sira hodi halo investementu iha ita nia rai. Ho partisipasaun 56.56% TL nia iha dezenvolvimentu kampu GS, signifika TL mos sei benefisia husi instrumentu IC 100 + 127% (GSSR, 2018).
  1. Hari TLNG sei fo benefisiu regime kontratu iha kampu GS depois de Fronteira Maritima (FM). Rendimentu upstream pipeline gas mai TL rejultadu sei fahe 70% ba TL no 30% ba Australia. Downstream exceptu karik IOC ruma hakarak investa entaun konserteja 100% mai TL. Fahe lukru iha kampu GS tuir kontratu sei fahe 50% ba governu (husi 50% nee sei fahe 70% ba TL no 30% ba Australia) no 50% seluk ba kontraktores. Kontratu fahe rezultadu sei aplika mos ba produsaun produtu liquidu no gas iha kampu GS. Nemak lalaok regime kontratu iha kampu GS depois de FM asina. Ho partisipasaun TL iha kampu GS sei hetan benefisiu dobru liu tan ba receitas TL. Rendimentu ba TL iha GS sei mai husi royalty, lukru, impostu, no reimbolsa ba kustu capital, domestic market obligation (DMO) no ect. Enkuantu kompanya sei hetan benefisiu husi profit share, cost recovery (CR), internal rate of return (IRR), no instrumentus fiskal seluk (Hamburg, 2010).
Lee Mós :
Kompania Fura Mina Kolabora Loke Odamatan Simu Jornalista Sira iha Suai

XII. Dalang stratejiku atu sustentabiliza industria petroleu iha TL mak governu via ANPM ho Timor Gap tenke servisu makas, halo diplomasia, buka parseria ho international oil company (IOC) ka kompanya E&P nebe iha kapasidade finanseiru hodi bele investe ba aktividades explorasaun mina no gas. Aktividade explorasaun mak aktividades sira nebee ligadu ho buka no deskobre potensia rezerva minarai no gas iha teritoriu TL, tantu iha rai maran (onshore) no tasi laran (offshore). Objektivu indentifikasaun hodi asegura sustentabilidade industria petroleu no fundu petroleum até futuru jerasaun bazea ba planu strateziku dezenvolvimentu 2011-2030 konaba dezenvolvimentu setor petrolifera (Liu, J., & Katz, B. J., 2013). Dalang atu atrai IOC halo investimentu ba seitor petroleum iha TL, seitor seguransa ho defeza tenke seguru, dijitaliza informasaun ho data, dezenu kontratu petroliferu tenke atrativu no uniku, formulasaun production sharing contract (PSC) entre Timor-Leste, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, norwegia, Australia, no ect iha rejiaun tenke ekivalente hodi halakon gap favoretismu, dijitaliza atendementu, simplifikabureukrasia no konkursu explorasaun bloku petroliferu bele via online, hodi estimula petroleum big data.

XIII. Kampu Greater Sunrise (GS) konsidera kampu gas no mina kondensadu provadu nebe futuru bele produs hodi kontinua fo receitas ba governu TL, wainhira Kampu minarai BU hapara produsaun. Komersialidade dezenvolvimentu gas iha kampu GS depende ba: rezerva gas (reserve), folin gas (price) no demanda gas iha merkadu (buyer/market). Dadus hatudu estimasaun rezerva gas ho mina kondensadu iha kampu Greater Sunrise (GS) boot liu kompara ho kampu Bayu Undan (BU). Tuir Ainsworth R.B. et al., (2020), Kampu GS kompostu husi kampu gas rua mak: Sunrise no Troubador ho potensia rezervatoriu gas purvolta 10.4–19.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) no mina purvolta 474-914 milioens barrels kondensadu (MMbbls) (Ainsworth et al., 2000). Kampu GS deskobre desde 1974 no konsidera nudar kampu petroleu provadu, tamba justifika ona liu husi estudu geolojia ho jeofizika, halo ona perfurasaun explorasaun ba posu 6 (nen), halo appraisal iha 1995 ho teste posu ka well testing ba 11 (sanulu resin ida) no dadus wireline log hatudu rezultadu signifikadu tebes (Ainsworth, R. B., Stephenson, P. M., Johnson, D. A., & Seggie, R. J. (2000).

XIV. Financial option ba projeitu pipeline no TLNG. Perguntas mak nee, fundu investimentu husi nebee?. Enkuantu TL nia fundu petrolifera (FP) nebee rai iha Banku Federal U.S. hela deit ona +- $ 18.075 billioens dollars, nunee TG sei evita no la uja FP hodi halo investimentu. Faze tuir mai, dalang diak liu tuir pratika normativa industria minarai, investimentu ba downstream bele halo husi TG ho nia partnership sein uja FP. Partnership mak sei investa Engineering, Procurement andConstruction (EPC ou EPC plus Finance).

EPC plus finance signifika kompanya mak sei investa osan no konstrui projeitu intermu investimentu iha pipeline, marine no surface facilities ou planta LNG (Van Nuffel, F., Krekel, M., Verhagen, J., & Gilbert, T., 2020). TG ho nia parseria bele halo imprestimu (loan) hodi halo investimentu no sira sei rekopera fali osan wainhira hahu halo produsaun ba kampu GS. Kompanya sei rekopera osan via profit share, cost recovery (CR), internal rate of return (IRR), ho instrumentus fiskal seluk. Ho ida nee, TG tenke servisu makas halo negosiasaun no buka partnership ou IOC, Empreza E&P nebe iha kapital finansial no kapasidade teknika diak, reputasaun no hetan rekonesementu no certifikasaun internasional, iha experiensia hodi investa iha parte downstream. TG ho kompanya EPC bele investa iha parte downstream hodi lori pipeline mai TL no asegura receitas 100%. Investimentu ba kampu GS sei kompostu husi investimentu upstream, midstream no downstream. Bain-bain industria minarai aktividades hirak nee iha interligadu, hahu upstream, midstream to’o downstream. Aplikasaun regime fiskal nasaun ida-idak nia diferente, depende ba kondisaun no situasaun aktual nasaun origin nian. Iha ita nia rai opta kontratu fahe rezultadu (production sharing contract (PSC)).

  1. Hari TLNG sei redus numeru dezempregu no redus taxa povreza, hadia rendimentu povu, hasa’e receitas dupla ba FP, hasa’e rendimentu ba nasaun via royalty, impostu, reimbolsa kustu kapital 100 + 127%, hamosu efeitu multiplika (multiplier effect) boot ba ekonomia nasaun via transfer teknolojia, konhesementu, no skills ba jovem no foin sae sira, hamoris investimentu seitor privadu, hamoris investimentu iha area turismu, edukasaun, saude, peskas, agrikultura, hotelaria, infrastruktura, emprendedorismu, no ect. Liu-liu mos liu husi realijasaun FM permanente fo oportunidade ba TL liu husi fornesementu bem servisu 90% sei mai husi TL ou sujeita liu husi TL, fornesementu equipamentus no apoiu lojistika, karantina sei liu husi TL, nunee sei garantia independente ekonomia no sustentabilidade industria petroliferu iha Timor Leste tantu aktividades iha tasi (offshore) no rai maran (onshore). God Bless TL🙏.

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Lee Mós :
ONU Kongratula Governu Timor-Leste Kona-ba Programa SENSUS 2022

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  17. Internet web:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHUb01eKH0E
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  8. Anexu B, Greater Sunrise Special Regime (GSSR)
  9. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/meg-o-neill-0799b816a_thank-you-prime-minister-xanana-gusm%C3%A1o-president-activity-7132969223131209728-qGbV?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

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